Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Dow 18,500? Believe It - Morningstar

Dow 18,500? Believe It - Morningstar Fund Spy

Morningstar is not shy about what they think the market will do - they believe it should goto 18,500 (the Dow) within three years based on a number of measures. Are they right? Does it matter?

While it might feel good to see a prediction such as this, I could post dozens of opposing stories calling for Dow 10,000 or less. The fact of the matter is that we don't know the future for stocks, like the rest of the future - it is unpredictable.

I would tend to favor Morningstar's analysis, but I've also learned that the market can remain undervalued or overvalued for quite some time.

Bottom line - if you have a three year time frame, you shouldn't be in stocks. If you have ten years or more - invest away, especially at what appear to be good prices.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP, AIF