Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Silver Lining in all this Pessimism?

Yesterday I was talking to a client and said that there is some good news out there, her response was "where?". It's ironic I said, but the good news is that all of the news is SO BAD. Try to find news that isn't hopeless and full of doom, its tough. Even good news is made to sound bad ("There not laying off teachers in Murrieta.....just wait till next year"). What I explained is that things are never as good as they seem and that things are never as bad as they seem. When things are so rosy that there is no bad news, you should be weary, when things are so dire that the news is all terrible, there is reason to have hope.

This of course is just another play on Warren Buffets "Sell at the height of optimism, Buy at the height of pessimism".

I don't know when this will end, it could be a long time, but I'm encouraged by the level of pessimism.

Here is a link to John Authers short video saying the same thing along with some interesting charts.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF