Monday, February 21, 2011

From Birinyi to Schiller to Gundlach - What Guru To Follow Makes a Difference

Robert Shiller sees a 13% total return for stocks.....for the decade, so the S & P ending around 1430.

Laszlo Birinyi sees the S & P at 2854 by.......2013.

Jeffrey Gundlach in Barrons this weekend says the S & P 500 is going to 500....this year.

So which is it? One guru (who has consistently been right, Shiller) see the S & P 500 at half what another sees it at, another sees the S & P 500 down 840 points THIS YEAR or next. Only one of these guys can be right (technically two as the market could go to 500 then 1430 or 2854....or vice versa).

What guru you follow makes a big difference in what returns you earn or how much money you lose. Predicting the future is not so simple, I'm throwing in more with Shiller, but admit anything can happen in this market (up or down).

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF