Wednesday, April 22, 2009

For Housing Crisis, the End Probably Isn’t Near

It ain't over till its over and for housing, it ain't over. This is the evidence from New York Times writer David Leonhardt after attending a few home auctions that surprised him.

I've been warning that the foreclosure crisis is not over, it was just delayed and its starting again. This wave will be the continuation of the previous wave, the next wave will be people who thought they were going to get help, but didn't and the wave after that will be Option ARMs in 2010 and 2011 (or earlier as they see no relief). The final wave will be those people who can fully afford their mortgage but can't find a good reason to pay it given the massive losses they've experienced.

All of this is of course preventable and as much as I despise the government intervention thus far, without government coordination I fear that the government will end up bailing out banks in a much more profound way. We have an opportunity, perhaps a window to bring this crisis to an end once and for all - nobody is paying attention though. The government appears ready to not act until another crisis appears as opposed to preventing the next crisis.

There are good answers, I've written about them and linked to others. Is anybody paying attention?

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF