Tuesday, April 28, 2009
John Hussman has a strong opinion about the current economy (and he is one of the few managers to do well during the past two downturns), the pertinent part of his latest commentary:
"What we cannot do is create all of this out of thin air. Understand that the money that the government is throwing around represents a transfer of wealth from an unwitting public to the bondholders of mismanaged financial corporations, even while foreclosures continue. Even if the Fed buys up the Treasuries being issued, and thereby “monetizes” the debt, that increase in government liabilities will mean a long-term erosion in the purchasing power of people on relatively fixed incomes.
To a large extent, the funds to defend these bondholders will come by allowing U.S. businesses and our future production to be controlled by foreigners. You'll watch the analysts on the financial news channels celebrate the acquisition of U.S. businesses by foreign buyers as if it represents something good. It's frustrating, but we are wasting trillions of dollars that could bring enormous relief of suffering, knowledge, productivity, and innovation in order to defend bondholders of mismanaged financials, and nobody cares because hey, at least the stock market is rallying. If one thing is clear from the last decade, it is that investors have no concern about the ultimate cost of the wreckage as long as they can get a rally going over the short run.
For my part, I remain convinced that without serious efforts at foreclosure abatement (ideally via property appreciation rights), mortgage losses will begin to creep higher later this year, surging in mid-2010, remaining high through 2011, and peaking in early 2012. To believe that we are through with this crisis or the associated losses is to completely ignore the overhang of mortgage resets that still remain from the final years of the housing bubble."
I agree with John, we have to address the issues affecting our financial system head on, we aren't doing it.
Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF