Friday, December 30, 2005

Pundit Watch Pundit Watch: Archives

I thought this would be interesting. Smartmoney invites the so called "experts" to make their one year predictions - which of course is just worthless. But if you're interested in ready worthless dribble from some people who think they are my guest!

To see how last years here!

1 year predictions are worthless - always remember that the future cannot be predicted.

Here are a few websites with predictions for 2005!

Using Astrology for predicting stocks.....not exactly a fiduciary method!

FoxNews Hounds Predictions:

Have fun and Happy New Year!!!

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Don't Buy the Bubble Talk The Pro Shop: Don't Buy the Bubble Talk

I always want to present both sides of the "bubble" when it comes to Real Estate. This is an interesting interview.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Interest Rates & Bonds

It has been a wild ride for interest rates and bonds over the past two years. Interest rates on the shortest term treasury bills have risen by over 400% since January 2004 from a low of .74% to 4.01% on December 5th, 2005. This has been due to the Federal Reserve raising short term interest rates 13 times since June of 2004.

Attached is an article I wrote that I couldn't post to this blog because of formatting issues. I encourage you to read it along with the Vanguard document (click on above link).

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Is Real Estate a House of Cards?

Is Real Estate a House of Cards?: The Future for Investors - Yahoo! Finance

As you know I highly respect the author of this article, Jeremy Siegel. I think this article on real estate is a must read for all homeowners and those looking to buy rental real estate. About the only thing I disagree with Mr. Siegel on is that REIT's still offer a good opportunity. He compares them to government bonds in terms of yield and I think that is a mistake as REIT's are in a wholly different risk class, I don't think REIT's are a good deal.

Read this article.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Personal Finance Myths

Personal Finance Myths

Don't know who this guy is, but I like what he has too say. These 8 myths are worth taking a few minutes to read.

1. Paying tons of Mortgage Interest is WONDERFUL because it is tax deductible
2. If you refinance to a lower rate you will save interest long term
3. You pay no interest on a 0% car loan
4. All Variable Annuities are a ripoff
5. People who earn more money/live in expensive homes/drive fancy cars are "richer"
6. Always hold stocks long term to reduce taxes
7. Taxes should be fair
8. Good investments should always beat the market

You can read the justifications for each of these at the above link.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Fed boosts interest rates

Fed boosts interest rates, signals end game - Martin Wolk: Eye on the Economy -

Are we at the end?

Does it even matter? The Feds been raising rates since June 2004 and the rate on the 10 year treasury is virtually unchanged.

Yes, it does matter and the Fed has been very affective at getting short term rates to rise. The 3 month treasury was under 1% in June 04', in 2005 it crossed the 4% mark before dropping sharply to where it is today, 3.61%.

Rates matter and have an effect on everything, the question is really what will happen when the new Fed chief takes over next year.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Monday, December 12, 2005

Wirehouse sweeps raising concerns

Wirehouse sweeps raising concerns - December 12, 2005 - Dan Jamieson - InvestmentNews

Big brokerage firms are once again skirting their fiduciary obligations to their clients so that they can skim additional profits from client accounts. I don't have a problem with profit, but the brokerage firms are knowningly replacing higher yielding money market accounts with lower yielding bank deposit funds that allow the firm to them use those funds to lend out money, thereby generating additional profits - at the expense of the customer.

Now you know why the brokerage firms fought tooth and nail to not be called fiduciaries and be held to the same standards of accountability as independent fiduciary based advisors.

I hope the pending merger of TD Waterhouse and Ameritrade will not bring "bank deposits" to Ameritrade. If they do we will find another place for money market funds.

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP

Saving as hard as quitting smoking

Study: Saving for retirement nearly as hard as quitting smoking - December 05, 2005 - Gary S. Mogel - InvestmentNews

Now you know why most people aren't saving for retirement....its hard!

Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP