Beware of the "Growth Trap": The Future for Investors - Yahoo! Finance
Prof Siegel does a great job in this piece explaining why paying too much for a stock is detrimental to your long term returns. Which stock would you have rather purchased in 1950 - Standard Oil or IBM? The answer may surprise.
Read on...
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Monday, February 13, 2006
FORTUNE: A tale of two markets
FORTUNE: A tale of two markets - Feb. 13, 2006
Please read this article. I think it shows the major divide in thinking about the real estate market. I think the two quotes that are perhaps the most scary are the following:
"Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006," he says. "It's impossible for prices to go down this year." Gary Watts, Orange County Association of Realtors spokesman
"Yale's Shiller surveyed Orange County residents last year on what they expected home prices to do over the next ten years. The average expectation was a 23 percent return -- per year! That kind of unbridled optimism has caused buyers to stretch beyond their limits. Southern California has become a hotbed for "exotic" mortgages, such as interest-only loans."
The most dangerous phrase in the world uses the word "impossible" as its pretext. To say something is impossible is just plain stupid, regardless of who you are. I don't know where O.C. or national housing prices are going, they could go up or down 15% this year, but I don't know- nobody does. I think the probabilities would not be in favor of a 15% rise, of course history shows us that assets don't always adhere to fundamentals (NASDAQ 2000 anybody).
I really don't know what will happen with Real Estate, but I do know that you should be cautious when buying it and understand all the risks in advance before doing so and I also know never to utter the words "impossible" as they just may come back to bite me......
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Please read this article. I think it shows the major divide in thinking about the real estate market. I think the two quotes that are perhaps the most scary are the following:
"Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006," he says. "It's impossible for prices to go down this year." Gary Watts, Orange County Association of Realtors spokesman
"Yale's Shiller surveyed Orange County residents last year on what they expected home prices to do over the next ten years. The average expectation was a 23 percent return -- per year! That kind of unbridled optimism has caused buyers to stretch beyond their limits. Southern California has become a hotbed for "exotic" mortgages, such as interest-only loans."
The most dangerous phrase in the world uses the word "impossible" as its pretext. To say something is impossible is just plain stupid, regardless of who you are. I don't know where O.C. or national housing prices are going, they could go up or down 15% this year, but I don't know- nobody does. I think the probabilities would not be in favor of a 15% rise, of course history shows us that assets don't always adhere to fundamentals (NASDAQ 2000 anybody).
I really don't know what will happen with Real Estate, but I do know that you should be cautious when buying it and understand all the risks in advance before doing so and I also know never to utter the words "impossible" as they just may come back to bite me......
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Friday, February 10, 2006
The New Financial Aid Rules
The New Financial Aid Rules (Consumer Action: Personal Finance) SmartMoney.com
Parents with children who are beginning to think about college, this is an article to pay attention too. No major changes in student loans, but interest rates will be much higher than in the past few years, though loan limits have also increased.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Parents with children who are beginning to think about college, this is an article to pay attention too. No major changes in student loans, but interest rates will be much higher than in the past few years, though loan limits have also increased.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Thursday, February 09, 2006
30-Year Bond Sold for 1st Time in 5 Years
30-Year Bond Sold for 1st Time in 5 Years: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Talk about a good deal, if the goverment is smart they'll keep issuing 30 year bonds - 4.53% is less than you can earn in a 1 year CD. They yield curve is inverted - the question remains what that means.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Talk about a good deal, if the goverment is smart they'll keep issuing 30 year bonds - 4.53% is less than you can earn in a 1 year CD. They yield curve is inverted - the question remains what that means.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Reimers leaves investors mystified
ContraCostaTimes.com 02/01/2006 Reimers leaves investors mystified
Another update in the Plan Compliance Group Scandal. Nothing new, except now the SEC is investigating. It appears that the FBI, SEC, and two state AG's are invovled, though little has actually been released as to findings.
As expected, the investors and school districts hurt by Reimers are extremely upset and attempted to confront him at the Bankruptcy hearing. My hearts and prayers go out to these individuals and their families.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
Another update in the Plan Compliance Group Scandal. Nothing new, except now the SEC is investigating. It appears that the FBI, SEC, and two state AG's are invovled, though little has actually been released as to findings.
As expected, the investors and school districts hurt by Reimers are extremely upset and attempted to confront him at the Bankruptcy hearing. My hearts and prayers go out to these individuals and their families.
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP
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