Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Dykstra: Another Too-Good-To-Be-True Story



Growing up I was a big baseball fan, still am, but to a lesser extent. I collected baseball cards and followed the Major League teams closely. I could tell you the starting lineup of every club, their individual player stats (not just for the year, but their career) and every team a player had played for - it was my passion, before finance. I remember the 1986 world series like it was yesterday - Boston Red Sox versus the New York Mets. It was a great series and my favorite ballplayer at the time, Wade Boggs was about to win his first World Series (Boston)......until the most famous gaffe of all time occurred. In game 6 the Red Sox where one out away from winning the World Series and breaking the Curse of the Bambino, a soft, easy to play ground ball was hit to Golden Glove first baseman Bill Buckner......and it went between his legs (allowing the winning run to score). The Red Sox went on to lose the game, which forced game seven, which they lost.....the curse would continue for another 18 years (they won in 2004). Bill Buckner, a great baseball player by all accounts was hated and villified, his whole life changed after that. At the end of the day though, Buckner went on with his life and most people have forgiven him and can laugh it off. What does this have to do with my headline? Turns out the only real goon on the field that day was not Buckner, but the now infamous, Lenny Dykstra (Nails - for you baseball fans).

The above article will give you a bit of a background on Dykstra in terms of his rise from baseball fame to Investment Manager fame, but I remember about a year or two ago hearing about Dykstra from a buddy (can't remember who). My buddy said something about Dykstra and I said "the ballplayer?" He told me that Dykstra had become a guru of investors and was rich and writing for Jim Cramer (in my Hall of Idiots).......what?

The article will tell you why that surprised me, but suffice it to say I was intrigued, even read a few of his articles and then promptly concluded Dykstra was an idiot. He wasn't doing anything special and would eventually peter out.......instead he went out with a bang. He claims $30 million in liabilities and $50,000 in assets in his recent bankruptcy filing.

Dykstra could help you earn outsize returns so you could live in a big mansion and use private jets.........at least that was the image portrayed. At the end of the day he turned out to be just another of histories fools. Bill Buckner made an error that day back in 1986 (everyone forgets it was Bob Stanley's wild pitch to Mookie Wilson that allowed Mitchell to score, tying the game), but that is part of the game, he was no fraud, he was the real deal who made a big error - Dykstra is a fraud and will forever be known to me as the only Goon to come out of that series.

The real point: If its too good to be true.......well, you know the rest.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF
www.meridianwealth.com

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Taleb: Time to tackle the real evil: too much debt

Great article that proposes what I am many others have been saying for a long time, Debt must be swapped for Equity.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF

Monday, July 13, 2009

Michael Lewis: The Man Who Crashed the World



An excellent an easy, quite fascinating piece on the unit at the center of the financial crisis and sub-prime meltdown, AIG Financial Products.

The hubris is unbelievable, but what actually happened compared to what the mainstream media has reported is even more interesting. For sure, this is not a full accounting, but its a good account.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF
www.meridianwealth.com

Time: Revealing Interview with Depression Economist Anna Schwartz



Whether you like, dislike or don't care about Obama, read this Time article with an open mind and consider that its not about Obama, but about the economist who literally lived through the Great Depression and has built a career on it. Anna Schwartz is someone to listen to even if you disagree with her. I pray to God that I have such a spry mind at her age.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF
www.meridianwealth.com

Siegel Date Called Into Question: Stocks for the Long Run Flawed

The link is to another blog which provides a link to the Jason Zweig Wall Street Journal article about the flawed data Professor Siegel has used in his book Stocks for the Long Run. The book in question had become the bible for most planners (including myself.....but no longer), but the assumptions are being called into question and for good reason - they are highly flawed. You can link to the blog post and article to learn about those flawed assumptions, but suffice to say there isn't much to say. I've quoted and linked to Jeremy Siegel many times in the past and will continue to follow him, however it appears that this professor may be a bubble legend....and this bubble has been popped. The damage however is monstrous as nearly all planners and investment advisors have been schooled in the Stocks for the Long Run methodology. It seems we (yes, I include myself) allowed ourselves to believe what we wanted to believe and instead of trying to design reasonable methods to meet goals, we became cheerleaders for stocks and resorted to almost a religious faith in them as the singular way to meet a clients goal. Things have now changed, its not that Stocks aren't a good invest in the long run or that many of the truths I and others held dear are no longer - its that they may have been misapplied.

More on this to come.

Scott Dauenhauer CFP, MSFP, AIF
www.meridianwealth.com